Kioni points out that ODM is currently divided on its political direction. One side, associated with Oburu Odinga, is pushing for a working arrangement with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA). This group believes supporting Ruto’s re-election should come with a deputy president slot as part of the deal.
However, another faction within ODM strongly opposes this approach. Led by Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, this group insists that ODM should remain independent and field its own presidential candidate in 2027. According to Kioni, this faction enjoys wider support both within the party and across the country.
Despite this, the Sifuna-led side has no interest in negotiating with UDA. As a result, ODM lacks a united position that could strengthen its bargaining power. Kioni argues that without unity, it becomes difficult for the party to demand such a high-level position in government.
He also notes that the Oburu-led faction does not command enough numbers or political weight to influence national-level negotiations. In his view, this makes it unrealistic for that group to expect a deputy president slot, or even significant cabinet positions.
Kioni further observes that President Ruto’s current political focus has shifted away from Nyanza. The president is now concentrating more on the Mt Kenya region, where he is directing development resources and consolidating support. This shift, he says, reduces the chances of ODM gaining strategic concessions from the ruling coalition.
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