Why President Ruto Could Still Win a Second Term in 2027, Analyst Says

Political analyst Professor Peter Kagwanja has shared reasons why President William Ruto may still secure a second term in office in the 2027 General Election, despite growing public dissatisfaction with his administration.

Speaking during a radio interview on Tuesday, Kagwanja said Kenyan politics often goes beyond public anger and focuses more on strategy, persuasion, and visible achievements. 

According to him, President Ruto remains one of the most tactful politicians in the country, with the ability to turn difficult situations to his advantage.

Kagwanja explained that while many Kenyans are unhappy with the cost of living, taxes, and unmet campaign promises, elections are usually decided closer to polling day. By then, he believes Ruto could present major development projects as proof of performance.

One of the key factors highlighted is infrastructure. Kagwanja pointed to ongoing and planned road and railway projects that could significantly influence voters. 

These include the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway from Naivasha through Kisumu to Malaba, as well as major highways connecting Rironi, Mau Summit, Eldoret, Malaba, and the Nithi Bridge.

He noted that if these projects are completed or visibly progressing by 2027, they will give the president strong talking points during campaigns. 

“Big infrastructure leaves a physical mark,” Kagwanja said, adding that many voters judge leadership by what they can see and use.

Another advantage, according to the analyst, is how the projects are being financed. Kagwanja said the government has shifted focus from heavy borrowing to investment partnerships, including deals with foreign investors such as Chinese firms. 

This, he argued, allows the president to claim he is developing the country without pushing it deeper into debt.

However, Kagwanja also criticized President Ruto’s economic messaging. He said the president should be honest with Kenyans and admit that his “hustler” promises have not been fully delivered. Kagwanja argued that admitting failure does not weaken a leader but instead builds trust.

He described the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda as well-intentioned but ineffective in its current form. 

According to him, the government should rethink its approach and possibly combine bottom-up ideas with stronger top-down planning to achieve better results.

Despite the criticism, Kagwanja maintained that Ruto’s political experience, communication skills, and control of state machinery give him a strong advantage over potential challengers. 

He added that unless the opposition presents a united front with a clear alternative vision, the president could still find it easier than expected to win re-election.