List Of Counties At Risk Of El Niño Rains, Govt Confirms

The Kenyan government has activated its National Contingency Plan as the country prepares for above-normal rainfall during the October-December 2026 El Niño season.

The Ministry of Interior and National Administration has warned that heavy rains could cause widespread flooding, displacement, disease outbreaks and damage to critical infrastructure across the country.

According to a statement issued on Tuesday, September 1, counties in Western, Nyanza and North Eastern Kenya are expected to experience an early onset of the rains.

Authorities have identified several areas considered highly vulnerable to the effects of the expected rainfall. 

These include riverine and low-lying areas, coastal strips, highland regions prone to landslides, arid and semi-arid areas in northern Kenya and flood-prone urban centres.

The government has also listed roads and transport infrastructure in North Eastern, Tana River, Coastal, Western/Nyanza, Rift Valley, Turkana, Nairobi, Central and Eastern regions as vulnerable to disruption.

The National Disaster Operations Centre has already undertaken hotspot mapping to identify areas where evacuation and emergency response resources will be required.

The anticipated impacts include flooding, drowning, deaths, displacement and isolation of communities. The rains could also disrupt essential services and cause losses to crops, livestock and livelihoods.

Government Steps Up Preparedness

Authorities have started clearing drainage systems and water channels in areas considered vulnerable to flooding.

The Kenya Urban Roads Authority is working to unblock drainage choke points along key roads, while other government agencies are undertaking similar operations in high-risk locations.

Solid waste management has also been strengthened to prevent blocked drainage systems from worsening flooding.

The government has urged residents living on riparian land and other high-risk areas to consider moving to safer locations before the situation deteriorates.

Temporary holding grounds have been identified for communities that may be displaced by floods, while water levels in rivers, dams and other water bodies are being closely monitored.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has projected an 81% probability of a strong El Niño developing, with its effects potentially extending into early 2027.

The government has therefore urged national and county authorities to remain alert and strengthen disaster preparedness measures as the rainy season approaches.