If Ruto Doesn't Get Votes From These 2 Key Regions, Then He Can Forget About Re-Election (Opinion)

As 2027 approaches, the political landscape in Kenya is already shifting and for William Ruto, that spells danger. 

In 2022, Ruto rode a wave of massive support from the Mount Kenya region that delivered him the presidency. 

But today, that wave shows signs of ebbing.If he fails to build a robust alternative alliance, especially in the Western Kenya and Nyanza region, his re-election hopes could be lost.

Mount Kenya remains the largest voting bloc in the country.According to recent data, the region registers more voters than any other in Kenya with over 7 million across its ten counties.In 2022, Ruto secured about 77 % of the valid votes cast there.

That Bloc support was crucial: few if any other regions could provide so many votes in one bloc.

Without Mount Kenya, rallying just a couple of counties won’t be enough: “bloc voting” from a region with 5–7 million voters is a rare and powerful advantage.

But the political calculus has changed.There are credible claims, even from some former supporters — that Ruto has lost ground in Mount Kenya. 

Notable analyst Mutahi Ngunyi recently warned that “Kikuyus have reached ground zero” with Ruto, suggesting many will not return to support him no matter the inducements. 

Others argue that voters from the region might stay away altogether, disillusioned by unmet promises. 

Although allies like Anne Waiguru claim rallies still draw crowds, as evidence that support remains, many analysts see those as optics rather than genuine political commitment. 

If Mount Kenya deserts him, Ruto cannot simply ignore Nyanza and Western regions — doing so would be politically suicidal. 

Combined, these two regions represent several million voters according to recent registration tallies. 

Historically, Nyanza and Western have leaned opposition, and remain politically antagonistic to him. 

For 2027, nothing less than a major outreach and possibly new alliances — will suffice if he hopes to offset a potential Mount Kenya shortfall.

Ruto has been praised by some media as a “political genius,” admired for his strategic thinking and his resilience amid shifting alliances.

Many analysts and publications have used labels like this when discussing his political comeback.But genius alone won’t convert votes. 

For a serious shot at the presidency again, he needs concrete paths and among the most realistic is to expand support in Nyanza and Western. If he fails on that, or if Mount Kenya rejects him outright — then his chances of re-election are slim.

In sum: 2027 will not be won on nostalgia, ethnicity, or rallies alone.It will be won by votes, votes that today point increasingly toward Western and Nyanza. 

If Ruto doesn’t secure those votes, and if Mount Kenya continues to drift, then he can indeed forget about re-election.