Latest Opinion Poll Shows Who Will win Presidential Elections if Elections Were Held Today Between Sifuna and Ruto

A new opinion survey by Mizani Africa has sparked intense political debate after indicating that President William Ruto would win the presidency if elections were held today—at least based on shifting sentiment in Kisumu County.

The poll, released on April 30, 2026, places Ruto at 49 percent support among respondents in Kisumu, a region historically aligned with opposition politics and closely associated with Raila Odinga. The findings suggest a potential political realignment in one of Kenya’s most symbolic strongholds.

Trailing Ruto is Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna with 21.8 percent, reflecting a notable but distant second position. Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka follows at 4.9 percent, while former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i garners 4.3 percent.

Other figures in the poll include former Chief Justice David Maraga at 2.6 percent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 2.1 percent. Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah and Mumias East MP Peter Salasya register below 1 percent, while 13.5 percent of respondents remain undecided.

Analysts say the results may reflect Ruto’s recent political strategy, including increased development tours and outreach efforts in the Nyanza region. Such moves appear aimed at softening traditional opposition dominance and expanding his national appeal.

However, critics caution against drawing firm conclusions from a single poll, noting that outcomes can vary significantly depending on methodology, sample size, and timing. They argue that Kisumu’s political identity has been shaped over decades and may not shift easily.

Still, the survey raises important questions about the current strength and cohesion of opposition forces. With figures like Sifuna emerging as key voices, internal dynamics within opposition ranks could play a decisive role in shaping future contests.

As Kenya moves closer to the 2027 General Election, the presence of a significant undecided bloc suggests the race remains open. 

Both government and opposition camps are expected to intensify campaigns, particularly in regions once considered politically predictable.

Whether the poll signals a lasting shift or a temporary fluctuation, it underscores one reality: Kenya’s political ground may be changing faster than many expected.