Odoyo Owidi: By-Election Outcomes Signal Opposition Could Stay Out of Power Until 2032

Former Lake Victoria Basin Commission board chair Odoyo Owidi says the results of Thursday’s by-elections underscore how difficult it is for any opposition movement to dislodge a ruling administration in Kenya.

In a lengthy analysis posted on X, Owidi argued that the mini-polls reflect a wider continental trend in which incumbents seldom lose power once they are firmly established.

He recalled that even during the era of President Daniel arap Moi, political transitions only occurred at moments when the sitting president was not on the ballot.

Owidi suggested that Kenya’s opposition is currently facing a similar reality and may need to brace for an extended period outside government unless it rethinks its strategies.

He stated that, based on Kenya’s constitutional timelines, the opposition may remain out of power until 2032—when the current administration’s term naturally ends—unless it opts to join a broad-based or unity government.

According to him, such arrangements have been used in various African countries, even though political conditions differ widely from one nation to another.

Owidi added that the latest by-election results demonstrate the formidable advantage of incumbency, including well-established political networks, access to state resources, and loyalty structures that heavily influence voter choices.

He contrasted Kenya’s situation with Zambia and Malawi, two countries where incumbents have been voted out, noting that their political environments are not directly comparable to Kenya’s.

Owidi also commented on the perceived political weight of young voters, warning against overstating the influence of Gen Z.

He argued that despite their strong presence on social media, many young people still identify more with local political groupings than with generational solidarity—and many are not registered voters, limiting their impact.

“Elections are won at the polling station, not on social media,” he wrote, urging political leaders to prioritize grassroots mobilization and community outreach over online momentum alone.

His remarks come as political parties evaluate their performance in the recent by-elections, where the ruling coalition managed to maintain its grip on several competitive seats.