Speaking on his YouTube channel on Friday evening, Manyora said that the ease with which the opposition appears to be consolidating behind a single candidate has caught the president off guard and potentially disrupted his election strategy.
According to Manyora, President Ruto had been counting on prolonged divisions within the opposition coalition—divisions that have traditionally weakened challengers to an incumbent.
The analyst believes Ruto expected a fierce contest among opposition principals, each of whom harbours presidential ambitions.
“He was banking on a major fallout,” Manyora noted.
“He was banking on a major fallout,” Manyora noted.
“Ruto’s plan was to benefit from disunity within the opposition, the same way former President Daniel Moi won in 1992 and 1997 because the opposition failed to unite behind a single candidate. That opportunity is slowly slipping from his fingers.”
Manyora argues that the president’s team had prepared for an opposition wracked by disagreements over who should fly the coalition’s flag.
Manyora argues that the president’s team had prepared for an opposition wracked by disagreements over who should fly the coalition’s flag.
Instead, the early signs indicate a smooth alignment around Kalonzo Musyoka—something that Manyora says has “extremely unsettled” State House.
The analyst says what is most shocking to Ruto’s camp is how Kalonzo’s name has risen to the top without any significant internal fights.
The analyst says what is most shocking to Ruto’s camp is how Kalonzo’s name has risen to the top without any significant internal fights.
He notes that opposition leaders appear content with the possibility of Kalonzo leading the formation, and none seem eager to publicly challenge the emerging consensus.
“In fact, it is not even being discussed,” Manyora stated.
“In fact, it is not even being discussed,” Manyora stated.
“Somehow, Kalonzo has become the automatic flag bearer. There is no visible friction, no public exchanges, no drama. That is not what Ruto expected.”
Manyora maintains that the lack of internal contestation signals a new level of maturity and strategy within the opposition—something the president may not have fully anticipated.
Another moment that Manyora describes as “politically significant” is Kalonzo Musyoka’s recent visit to Bondo, where he paid respect at the grave of his long-time ally, Raila Odinga.
The warm reception he received in Raila’s backyard, Manyora says, sent a strong message that the Luo community—long viewed as the heartbeat of opposition politics—may be warming up to Kalonzo as a legitimate successor to Raila’s political mantle.
For years, critics painted Kalonzo as a leader who lacked the charisma and popular mobilisation capacity needed to unite the country’s opposition base. However, the enthusiastic welcome in Bondo challenges that perception.
“Ruto had always seen Kalonzo as a weak candidate,” Manyora explains.
Manyora maintains that the lack of internal contestation signals a new level of maturity and strategy within the opposition—something the president may not have fully anticipated.
Another moment that Manyora describes as “politically significant” is Kalonzo Musyoka’s recent visit to Bondo, where he paid respect at the grave of his long-time ally, Raila Odinga.
The warm reception he received in Raila’s backyard, Manyora says, sent a strong message that the Luo community—long viewed as the heartbeat of opposition politics—may be warming up to Kalonzo as a legitimate successor to Raila’s political mantle.
For years, critics painted Kalonzo as a leader who lacked the charisma and popular mobilisation capacity needed to unite the country’s opposition base. However, the enthusiastic welcome in Bondo challenges that perception.
“Ruto had always seen Kalonzo as a weak candidate,” Manyora explains.
“But the Bondo reception told a different story—one that suggests Kalonzo’s national appeal may be underestimated.”
Manyora warns that if the opposition rallies behind Kalonzo early and avoids the chaos that traditionally accompanies such decisions, Ruto will face a more coordinated and single-minded challenger in 2027.
He notes that unlike in past elections where opposition coalitions formed late and struggled with internal rivalry, this emerging unity gives the opposition more time to plan, mobilise, and build messaging around a single candidate.
“The president will now be forced to do more than he had prepared for,” Manyora emphasized.
Manyora warns that if the opposition rallies behind Kalonzo early and avoids the chaos that traditionally accompanies such decisions, Ruto will face a more coordinated and single-minded challenger in 2027.
He notes that unlike in past elections where opposition coalitions formed late and struggled with internal rivalry, this emerging unity gives the opposition more time to plan, mobilise, and build messaging around a single candidate.
“The president will now be forced to do more than he had prepared for,” Manyora emphasized.
“A united opposition is Ruto’s worst nightmare. And if that unity forms around Kalonzo, it becomes even more complicated because the president had not invested much in countering Kalonzo specifically.”
The analyst adds that Kalonzo’s image is gradually transforming—moving from being dismissed as too passive to being viewed as a potentially steady and unifying national figure. This shift, he says, could reshape the political battlefield as the country inches closer to the 2027 polls.
Manyora concludes that the developments within the opposition signal the emergence of a new political dynamic—one that Ruto’s team must quickly adapt to.
The analyst adds that Kalonzo’s image is gradually transforming—moving from being dismissed as too passive to being viewed as a potentially steady and unifying national figure. This shift, he says, could reshape the political battlefield as the country inches closer to the 2027 polls.
Manyora concludes that the developments within the opposition signal the emergence of a new political dynamic—one that Ruto’s team must quickly adapt to.
He believes the president’s 2027 plan was designed around fighting a disjointed opposition, not one that rallies behind a candidate without internal fireworks.
“If Kalonzo continues gaining momentum, the president will have to rethink his political arithmetic,” he said.
“If Kalonzo continues gaining momentum, the president will have to rethink his political arithmetic,” he said.
Hello, my name is Yoruba. I'm a 25 year old self-employed blogger from the Africa.
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